Not conversant in BizarroMath? You’re in luck; I’ve launched a website for it the place you will get an evidence of the numbers and browse the information. Prior week entries on this sequence are linked beneath.
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
All traces courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of 10:00am CDT, Oct. 3, 2022.
How It’s Going
This week, BizarroMath went 2-5 ATS and 5-1-1 O/U. You folks went 1-6 ATS and three-3-1 O/U. My algorithm did higher than the BHGP neighborhood in a tough week that included a whole lot of low-scoring upsets. (*6*), Iowa-Michigan wasn’t one in all them.
Combined with the prior document of 15-16 and 11-20, respectively, the algorithm is now 22-24 ATS and 19-26-1 O/U on the season after 5 weeks. That’s Not Great. But, most algorithms did poorly this weekend. We’ll choose the physique of labor at season’s finish.
Saturday, Oct. 1, 2022
#4 Michigan at Iowa
Vegas Said: MI -10.5, O/U 42.5
Actual Outcome: MI 27, IA 14 (MI cowl, underneath)
BizarroMath: Iowa cowl (MISS), underneath (HIT)
You People: Iowa cowl (MISS), underneath (HIT)
Hot Take: Of all of the belongings you anticipated to see on this sport, the place in your record was Spencer Petras having a greater stat line than J.J. McCarthy and Michigan struggling to comprise Iowa’s passing assault?
Illinois at Wisconsin
Vegas Said: WI -7.5, O/U 44
Actual Outcome: IL 34, WI 10 (IL cowl, push)
BizarroMath: IL cowl (HIT), underneath (n/a)
You People: WI cowl (MISS), over (n/a)
Hot Take: I predicted an Illinois win right here, and I stated that when it occurs, you could possibly stick a fork in Wisconsin, however I did didn’t count on Wisconsin to stay a fork in Head Coach Paul Chryst, whom I just lately and incorrectly characterised as having ceiling that’s too low to win championships however too excessive to get him fired.
Indiana at Nebraska
Vegas Said: NE -3.5, O/U 61.5
Actual Outcome:: NE 35, IN 21 (NE cowl, underneath)
BizarroMath: IN cowl (MISS), underneath (HIT)
You People: IN cowl (MISS), underneath (HIT)
Hot Take: Nebraska is tied for 1st within the B1G West with the opposite 5 members of the Division not named Wisconsin.
Purdue at Minnesota
Vegas Said: MN -10, O/U 67.5
Actual Outcome: MN 10, PUR 20 (PUR cowl, underneath)
BizarroMath: PUR cowl (HIT), underneath (HIT)
You People: MN cowl (MISS), over (MISS)
Hot Take: I warned you that the The Flecking was nigh.
Rutgers at #3 Ohio State
Vegas Said: OS -41.5, O/U 59.5
Actual Outcome: OSU 49, RUT 10 (RUT cowl, underneath)
BizarroMath: OSU cowl (MISS), over (MISS)
You People: OSU cowl (MISS), over (MISS)
Hot Take: My intestine informed me Rutgers would cowl on this sport, simply based mostly on how powerful they performed Iowa, and my algorithm has persistently gotten OSU video games improper this yr.
Northwestern at #14 Penn State
Vegas Said: PSU -25, O/U 52.5
Actual Outcome: PSU 17, NW 7 (NW cowl, underneath)
BizarroMath: PSU cowl (MISS), underneath (HIT)
You People: PSU cowl (MISS), over (MISS)
Hot Take: PSU received a sport by double digits wherein they turned the ball over 5 instances, however you are able to do that if you additionally throw down 220 yards dashing and luxuriate in a 37:28 to 22:32 TOP benefit.
Michigan State at Maryland
Vegas Said: MD -7, O/U 60.5
Actual Outcome: MD 27, MSU 13 (MD cowl, underneath)
BizarroMath: MSU cowl (MISS), underneath (HIT)
You People: MD cowl (HIT), underneath (HIT)
Hot Take: In statistics, the usual deviation of a pattern measurement of 1 is infinite, which is why you don’t make selections over the disposition of tens of millions of {dollars} in Head Coach wage based mostly on one good season.
My prime takes on the Michigan sport. Again, I write this up earlier than I learn the articles and hearken to the podcasts, so if I’m repeating what others have additionally stated, mea culpa.
Shade will probably be thrown at Petras over this sport, however he was 21-31 for 246 yards with 7.9 YPP for 1 TD and 0 picks. Those aren’t nice numbers, however they’re numbers we will work with. Still too many balls thrown to a 9 foot tall ghost solely he can see.
Michigan averted passing the ball, appropriately understanding that the one method they’d lose this sport was on particular groups gaffes or turnovers. So. They simply didn’t try this.
Iowa had 35 internet dashing yards. That’s not a successful quantity for Iowa soccer, interval, a lot much less in opposition to a Top 5 opponent.
Iowa had 5 penalties for 59 yards. In a house sport. Seemingly each flag was thrown each away from the play and after a giant Iowa achieve. Again, not a successful quantity for Iowa soccer in opposition to a Top 5 opponent.
Speaking of flags, the officiating on this sport was terrible. Just bloody terrible. I don’t suppose it impacted who received, Iowa was totally outclassed throughout the board. But that was among the worst officiating I’ve ever seen in a Division I sport that didn’t contain an unranked Iowa State holding serve with a ranked Big 12 opponent. It makes watching the sport much less enjoyable, and watching Iowa soccer is already fairly uninteresting. The Big 10’s on-going high quality management challenges with officiating will finally change the result of a sport that issues. The league simply signed a ka-jillion greenback TV deal, can’t we rent just a few crews of full-time officers?
This sport went precisely the way in which the numbers recommend. Iowa’s offense is barely price about 10-15 factors a sport and if the protection can’t maintain opponents to lower than that, we’ve got to get scores elsewhere. If that doesn’t occur, Iowa doesn’t actually have a lot of an opportunity. We noticed this script play out in opposition to Wisconsin and Purdue final yr and we’re going to maintain seeing it this yr.
Connor Colby is struggling. He’s been struggling. I observed it throughout the ISU sport, he’s a step behind the defender, guys are blowing proper previous him. About all he can do is sort out the defender and hope he doesn’t get flagged. If I can see that, B1G defensive coordinators can see it. There’s expertise there, so I’m undecided what’s occurring with him, nevertheless it’s laborious to observe.
Remember throughout final yr’s B1G Championship Game when Mike Golic noticed on Twitter that Iowa appears to have a whole lot of third down performs designed to get precisely 1 yard lower than they want? We’re nonetheless utilizing that playbook. Sam LaPorta ran a number of routes the place he stopped or went horizontal 1 yard in need of the sticks. Even when there was sufficient house to go … one yard additional. This pattern goes again no less than so far as Greg Davis’s first yr in 2012, so it crosses coordinators. I can not fathom that Iowa is deliberately teaching guys to NOT run far sufficient downfield to select up first down yardage earlier than turning for the catch, however this has been going for A DECADE and this nonetheless occurs a number of instances per sport. What different rationalization is there?
Iowa Game-by-Game Projections
After figuring within the Michigan sport, BizarroMath has the Hawkeyes offense at 24.29 BOA (blended, opponent-adjusted) PPG, which is +4.15 from the OA PPG of 20.14, which is itself 1.39 up from the uncooked PPG of 18.75. Thus, final yr’s comparatively gaudy BOA 28.44 remains to be pulling the staff up, as are Iowa’s 14 factors price of protection scores. On protection, Iowa has lastly performed a superb offense and held them in test (comparatively talking), and the OA numbers are beginning to modify downwards. The protection has a uncooked PPG of 11.75, which OAs -2.97 to eight.78 PPG. But, blended with final yr’s BOA of 16.78, will get pulled again as much as 12.78.
Again, the BOA numbers are used for projections, however I could possibly be talked into offering a number of units of projections based mostly on evaluating uncooked or solely OA numbers with out mixing in final yr’s knowledge. Let me know if that’s one thing you’re considering seeing. I may also do composites of these numbers.
The delta between Iowa’s offensive and defensive numbers is skinny, however nonetheless constructive, which is nice. The uncooked delta is strictly 7 factors, and whilst you would possibly suppose that displays the standard of competitors, if you determine in opponents changes, the OA delta will get larger, which means Iowa offensive efficiency is healthier than it appears, given the competitors. But, that’s based mostly on giant half on having simply performed Michigan, and I feel the season will bear out that their protection is overrated.
Last week, Iowa was favored in simply two remaining video games. You can add to {that a} third: Wisconsin. The Hawkeyes are favored within the math by 0.8 factors, for a win% of 51.38% vs. the Badgers.
Ohio State goes to be a blowout. Just get comfy with that.
The traces stay tight in opposition to Illinois, Purdue, and Minnesota, all of which hover within the 40’s. Those are all extremely winnable video games, and Iowa may simply be 0-3 or 3-0 or something in-between in these matchups. The Hawkeyes are going to should outplay the chalk to get to an honest bowl. Las Vegas sounds good.
Iowa Season Projections
The key column I take a look at right here is the Floor column. This is the cumulative likelihood of attending to that document. The machine exhibits a 75-80% likelihood of hitting 6-6, however lower than a 50/50 likelihood of hitting 7-5. This is the place your O/U for the remainder of the season is. Really no large modifications or surprises right here. We started the season is the 6-6 to 7-5 vary and there we stay. 8-4 is your reasonable ceiling, perhaps 9-4 if Iowa can win a bowl sport. That could be a large achievement for this squad.
The Championship Race
Well this obtained bizarre quick. Last week I discussed that the swings are wild as soon as we get into heads-up division play, and this weekend bore that out. Losses by Wisconsin and Minnesota to divisional foes dropped them to the fifth and third spots, respectively, and elevated the victors.
If you’re going to lose a convention sport, lose to staff from the East. Purdue now stands astride the Big 10 West, with Illinois nipping at its heels. Iowa’s 1-1 convention document technically places the Hawkeyes in a 6-method tie for first place with everyone not named Wisconsin, however the Hawkeyes don’t have any heads-up losses to division foes but, so Iowa’s destiny remains to be in its palms for yet another week, however a loss to Illinois subsequent week will alter that calculus. Bigly.
The convention championship race stays largely educational in my thoughts. If both Michigan or Penn State can beat Ohio State, they’re within the driver’s seat, assuming they and Ohio State in any other case maintain serve. But Michigan is wanting reasonably mortal and James Franklin’s now nicely-established means to discipline a staff that’s lesser than the entire of its elements continues to carry the Lions in test.
Friday, Oct. 7, 2022
Nebraska at Rutgers
Vegas Says: NE -3.0, O/U 50.5
BizzaroMath Says: NE -9.03, O/U 56.35
You Say:
Poll
Who you bought?
13%
Nebraska cowl, over
(3 votes)
26%
Nebraska cowl, underneath
(6 votes)
17%
Rutgers cowl, over
(4 votes)
43%
Rutgers cowl, underneath
(10 votes)
23 votes complete
Vote Now
Hot Take: Rutgers is harder than they’re getting credit score for however nonetheless undisciplined sufficient that Nebraska would possibly be capable of win this by simply leaning on the expertise disparity.
Saturday, Oct.8, 2022
#4 Michigan at Indiana
Vegas Says: MI -21.5, O/U 57.5
BizzaroMath Says: MI -25.31, O/U 61.78
You Say:
Poll
Who you bought?
50%
Michigan cowl, over
(12 votes)
29%
Michigan cowl, underneath
(7 votes)
16%
Indiana cowl, over
(4 votes)
4%
Indiana cowl, underneath
(1 vote)
24 votes complete
Vote Now
Hot Take: Despite the win, I wasn’t not tremendous impressed with Michigan after watching them play Iowa, however Indiana’s outstanding COVID is beginning to appear to be an aberration.
Purdue at Maryland
Vegas Says: MD -4.5, O/U 59.5
BizzaroMath Says: PUR -0.8, O/U 50.88
You Say:
Poll
Who you bought?
30%
Purdue cowl, over
(6 votes)
25%
Purdue cowl, underneath
(5 votes)
30%
Maryland cowl, over
(6 votes)
15%
Maryland cowl, underneath
(3 votes)
20 votes complete
Vote Now
Hot Take: It looks like as soon as per week we’ve got a BizarroMath upset choose, and this week, it’s the Boilermakers to take out Maryland; however I don’t suppose BizMa has been proper about any of those but.
Wisconsin at Northwestern
Vegas Says: WI -9.5, O/U 44
BizzaroMath Says: WI -15.38, O/U 44.35
You Say:
Poll
Who you bought?
10%
Wisconsin cowl, over
(2 votes)
60%
Wisconsin cowl, underneath
(12 votes)
5%
Northwestern cowl, over
(1 vote)
25%
Northwestern cowl, underneath
(5 votes)
20 votes complete
Vote Now
Hot Take: The Badgers are 1-6 at Northwestern within the 21 Century; the Northwestern moneyline right here is +300; I recite these information collectively for no explicit motive.
#3 Ohio State at Michigan State
Vegas Says: OSU -25.5, O/U 62
BizzaroMath Says: OSU -28.66, O/U 65.77
Poll
Who you bought?
61%
OSU cowl, over
(13 votes)
38%
OSU cowl, underneath
(8 votes)
0%
MSU cowl, over
(0 votes)
0%
MSU cowl, underneath
(0 votes)
21 votes complete
Vote Now
Hot Take: In statistics, the usual deviation of a pattern measurement of 1 is infinite, which is why you don’t make selections over the disposition of tens of millions of {dollars} in Head Coach wage based mostly on one good season; I’m conscious that this sizzling take was additionally my recap of final week’s sport.
Iowa at Illinois
Vegas Says: IL -3.5, O/U 35.5
BizzaroMath Says: IL -3.81, O/U 26.84
Poll
Who you bought?
14%
Iowa cowl, over
(4 votes)
29%
Iowa cowl, underneath
(8 votes)
22%
Illinois cowl, over
(6 votes)
33%
Illinois cowl, underneath
(9 votes)
27 votes complete
Vote Now
Hot Take: BizMa’s pre-season projections for Iowa are 5-0 on the yr, and BizMa had Iowa successful this sport, so let’s concentrate on that, reasonably than the present prediction.
The Fine Print
Data Source: The betting traces are from DraftKings. Depending in your degenerate website of alternative, your mileage could differ.
Gambling Caveat: I don’t guess on sports activities. I run these numbers as a result of I’m a nerd who loves math and soccer and that is my concept of enjoyable. This ought to go with out saying, however in case you do guess, you must accomplish that based mostly by yourself impartial evaluation, not the half-baked statistical musings of an Internet rando.
Odds/traces topic to alter. T&Cs apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for particulars.
https://www.blackheartgoldpants.com/2022/10/3/23382229/iowa-hawkeye-football-machine-learning-week-6-big-ten-predictions-bhgp
