Predicting MLB Extra-Inning Games Using Machine Learning (2022)

I’m going to begin this text with information supporting why, in no way, it is best to ever guess an MLB sport to go to further innings earlier than the sport begins. Then, I’m going to take you down the wrath of statistics and machine studying as we turn out to be essentially the most educated extra-inning bettors out there. By the top of this text, my hope is that you just, as analytical gamblers, will probably be outfitted with extra-inning information second to none, and your little kids will dwell to listen to of the day when that information started.

Exploratory Analysis
Let’s get the dangerous out of the best way. Since 2017, extra-inning video games happen about as soon as each 11.96 video games (8.36%). Each yr is totally different, however 2022 is hovering just a little above the typical directly each 11.73 video games (8.52%). With that in thoughts, with none vegas juice, an implied further innings proportion of 8.36% ought to yield a mean guess of +1096. However, as I’m writing this text on the eve of August fifth, the typical worth for the 14 video games to go to further innings tomorrow is a measly +717 which suggests odds of 12.24%. The vig is one thing that is part of each guess as it’s what retains Vegas in enterprise. Nonetheless, with DraftKings assuming an implied odds of a sport going to further innings 46% greater than what we’ve got seen over the past 5 years, there ought to extra evaluation earlier than hitting Place Bet.

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