If you’re within the automotive business and the time period “chip scarcity” means nothing to you, then you’re most likely not within the automotive business.For the final two years, supply chain points — misplaced manufacturing, components shortage, price of products, freight costs — have loomed bigger on digital boardrooms and water coolers than EBITDAs and workplace politics. It was subject du jour at each automotive convention I’ve attended lately. Not every week goes by when it doesn’t come up in a shopper assembly.The pandemic hit everybody from automakers to components producers to jobbers all around the globe. The Russia- Ukraine struggle has solely made it worse, significantly for Europe. Dealer heaps are empty, automobile and half costs have skyrocketed, and fulfilment woes proceed.Despite the persistent gloom, there’s rising consensus within the business that we’ll seemingly come out of the supply chain disaster by early 2023. However, the fallout from China’s zero-COVID measures may push that by a number of extra quarters.But, after we lastly overcome the present challenges, what is going to issues appear to be on the opposite finish? How will automotive stakeholders react to the most important shock they’ve confronted for the reason that Great Recession?Most observers, yours actually included, imagine that we’re headed for the most important supply chain transformation since just-in-time (JIT) or China’s entry into the World Trade Organization. One may argue that after we blow previous the present mess, the business will return to enterprise as traditional.But I feel this time it will likely be completely different. Companies are usually not merely speaking up adjustments. They have began to roll out methods that point out {that a} tectonic shift is coming.Here are 4 methods during which auto components procurement and distribution will probably be re-wired for good (or a minimum of until the subsequent disruption):The China+ strategyProbably the obvious consequence of the present disaster. The shift away from the Asian powerhouse has been some time within the making. The pandemic is dashing up that change. After years of outsourcing components manufacturing to China (significantly within the aftermarket), there was rising consensus that the price of making — and transporting — components there are catching as much as native or near-shore (learn: Mexico) manufacturing prices. When freight costs quadrupled final 12 months, the case towards China solely grew stronger.The strongman geo-politics of Chinese chief Xi Jinping shouldn’t be serving to both. The tariff wars, pro-China jingoism, and tacit assist of Russia have made the nation much less palatable to CEOs. Uncertainty is anathema to enterprise leaders.But China’s manufacturing capability and labour market are just too massive to disregard. Despite the present handwringing, en masse exit from China is extraordinarily unlikely. Instead, firms will diversify manufacturing — both bringing some nearer to dwelling or creating backups in different Asian international locations resembling Vietnam, Thailand and India.Companies are usually not merely speaking up adjustments. They have began to roll out methods that point out {that a} tectonic shift is coming.Fattening the supply chainEver since Toyota confirmed the best way within the ‘80s, the lean philosophy has served the automotive business properly — decreasing prices and fattening margins. But the pandemic uncovered the shortcomings of the JIT mannequin. When sourcing and manufacturing felt the squeeze, “no fats” networks fell aside quick.The size of the common auto supply chain made issues worse. Even with larger expedited transport prices — at a time when freight costs have been at its peak — merchandise typically sat round at a number of ports as a result of labour shortages.While it might add price, suppliers and retailers will seemingly transfer towards plumper stock fashions — significantly these with longer supply chains. A latest Automotive News examine confirmed that over a 3rd of automotive firms are excited about growing their stock ranges, even when that interprets to larger operational prices.The business has completely different names for this technique. Some name it stock banking, some name it scarcity gaming. One known as it the just-in-case mannequin.This inventory-heavy method is unlikely to final endlessly. One can count on some degree of normalization as soon as we’re previous the present crunch. But some supply chain “fats” is right here to remain.Focus on flexibilityThe manufacturing supply chain is commonly a zero-sum sport. OEMs typically lock suppliers into long-term, rigid contracts with the premise of price concessions over the lifecycle of a product. Tier-1 suppliers do the identical to Tier-2s — the ‘win-lose’ method flows downhill.The construction had turn out to be so entrenched that everybody within the ecosystem accepted it as the price of doing enterprise. But the pandemic was the straw that broke the camel’s again. For instance, will increase in freight prices — which might be typically absorbed by a provider — turned so onerous that many have been pressured to push for value will increase to their clients or threat going out of enterprise. Top of chain firms got the ‘take it or depart it’ choice — a rarity in any supply chain, much more so in automotive. (The latest Frito-Lay/Loblaws standoff is an effective Canadian instance of this pattern).But the friction is giving technique to a cooperative ecosystem. At the Automotive Aftermarket Suppliers Association Vision Conference in April, collaboration between components retailers and suppliers was championed as pandemic highlights. Going ahead, this spirit is more likely to proceed — as a result of it makes enterprise sense. Supply and freight contracts will turn out to be extra versatile, significantly with pricing. These agreements will probably be pushed much less by lock-ins than by market-based, indexing guidelines, collaborative evaluations, and value-based components.Hyper pace to digitalThe automotive supply chain has been getting smarter for many years. But, for all of the promise of Manufacturing 4.0, IoT and AI-based platforms, the final two years confirmed that it isn’t good sufficient but. A latest McKinsey survey of world supply chain leaders reveals that 73 per cent of planning nonetheless occurs on spreadsheets. SAP software program got here closest to handbook planning with over half of respondents claiming use.But a number of sourcing, stock banking and versatile contracts can don’t have any significant affect with out correct forecasting, predictive stock planning, and different data-driven insights. The similar McKinsey survey experiences that 60 per cent of respondents plan to make use of AI instruments whereas one in 5 are already utilizing them. These predictive instruments generate extra visibility and facilitate end-to-end planning, making a digital community that can each mirror and form the bodily supply chain.But the simulations will probably be nearly as good as knowledge from the bottom. To that finish, we’ll see extra investments in IoT environments in manufacturing, warehousing, and transportation. These ‘good’ nodes will lastly generate the information to supply the required visibility and create a virtuous cycle between the digital and bodily supply chains.Kumar Saha is the Toronto-based Vice President (U.S.)/Managing Director (Canada) of world automotive intelligence agency Eucon. He has been advising North American automotive business for over a decade and is a frequent convention speaker and media commentator.
https://www.autoserviceworld.com/the-great-supply-chain-transformation/
The great supply chain transformation
